Acimga’s market survey for the IV quarter 2013-I quarter 2014 reveals optimism from market players but also emphasizes the stagnation of the domestic market. Exports at risk for the growing euro-dollar exchange rate and for Germany’s increasingly aggressive competition.

It’s too early to talk about recovery. However, in a scenario where the domestic market is stagnant and international competition is increasingly aggressive, the predominant outlook for the graphic and paper machinery industry – one of the leading segments in Italy’s instrumental mechanics industry – is optimistic.

Exports and export-generated revenues are growing, thus offsetting the protracted difficulties in the domestic market and keeping employment levels stable. In addition, expectations for the first quarter of this year are positive. This in sum is what emerged from the market survey performed by the research department of Acimga – the Italian manufacturers association of machinery for the graphic, converting and paper industry – with regard to market performance in the IV quarter 2013 and forecasts for the first quarter 2014.

Acimga represents a sector producing over € 2 billion in revenues, 83% of which are generated by exports; it employs 7,000 people in about 150 companies, 90% of which are small- and medium-size.

The qualitative market survey, conducted on a representative sample generating 82% of total revenues, clearly shows that exports as companies’ main strength: 48% of companies report an increase in exports in the fourth quarter of 2013, 40% report stability and only 12% report a drop. These results are expected to replicate in the first three months of 2014, with substantial stability (48%) and a greater number of companies expecting growth (32%) compared to those expecting a decrease (20%).

This data is supported by order performance on foreign markets, which shows an upward trend at the end of 2013 and is expected to remain stable (48%) in the I quarter of 2014 with a clear predominance of positive forecasts (44% compared to 8%) from market operators. The international scenario, traditionally very receptive to Italian products, looks interesting for the coming months especially in Far East markets, in Middle-East countries like Iran and in the recovering U.S. market. Conversely, it is less promising in Latin American countries compared to the past.

Export performance offsets a critical domestic market, curbed by the liquidity crisis which causes even those companies interested in investing to be extremely cautious. The domestic market was substantially stagnant in the last portion of the year (46% of companies report stability, the remaining sample is equally divided between increase and drop) with optimists having a slight margin in the forecasts for the I quarter 2014. The same holds true for domestic orders, again with a predominant positive outlook for the beginning of 2014. Nearly 80% of sample companies report stable employment levels.

“Our companies represent an industry segment capable of reacting to difficulties and having with a strong presence on global markets – says Acimga president Marco Calcagni – as clearly evidenced by the results of the market survey. However, we cannot overlook important signs like the stagnation of the domestic market, slowed down by a liquidity crisis banks do little to mitigate. Also, we need to pay close attention to the international market, where competition is increasingly fierce. German manufacturers are gaining ground on Italian companies, accompanied beyond their national borders by a more efficient financial and banking system. This – says Mr Calcagni – coupled with the overvaluation of the Euro vs. U.S. Dollar signals the need for greater, more effective support to the ‘Italian systems’ on international markets”.