After two years of slowed global recovered paper markets, expanding capacities of recycled fiber based paper and board will re-accelerate demand growth over the next 15 years. Though the recovered paper markets experienced volatility over the last few decades, growth has cooled in the last two years due to decelerating demand and slowing paper and board markets. World recovered paper consumption growth was down from 4% in last ten years to 1.7% per year in 2013.

Over the next five years, however, global recovered paper demand is forecasted to re-accelerate alongside recovering paper and board markets. Developing regions will account for about 90% of this demand and seek recovered paper from developed regions, which are major suppliers of recovered paper. These trends and other findings were revealed in Outlook for Global Recovered Paper Markets, a new study by RISI, the leading information provider for the global forest products industry.

“We are expecting to see growth in global recovered paper demand at an average rate of 2.5% per year, reaching 346 million tonnes by 2029. Meanwhile, world paper and board output will expand by only 1.8% per year over the same period,” said lead study author and Senior Recovered Paper Economist, Hannah Zhao.

Global trade is also expected to shift over this period as developing countries see increased demand. Zhao notes: “Overall, international trade will remain a key player in the global recovered paper markets even though we’re expecting trade volumes and patterns to change. China is the largest consumer and importer of recovered paper, but growth has slowed over the last few years and the nation’s foothold in the market is expected to weaken in terms of import demand. However, key regions could counterbalance market changes with increased imports and demand from other regions over the forecast period.”

Analyzing 120 countries, the study identifies investment and trading opportunities that apply to the recovered paper business as well as recycled fiber based paper and board products.